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| Hot Spots | Four major changes in 2018 will profoundly affect the oil industry |
| On April 10, the "Blue Book on the Development of China's Petroleum Circulation Industry" (2017-2018 edition), compiled by the China Petroleum Circulation Association, was officially released in Beijing. This blue book is hosted by the China Petroleum Circulation Association, and is jointly completed by the my country University of Petroleum (Beijing) School of Business Administration and the School of International Economics and Trade, University of International Business and Economics. It is the first comprehensive summary and analysis of the development status and trends of China’s oil circulation industry. Prospective industry development report. The blue book includes two major contents, namely the current situation of the domestic refined oil market circulation in 2017 and the outlook for the domestic refined oil circulation industry in 2018. The compilation of the blue book focuses on "original" and focuses on the characteristics of China's refined oil industry. In the form of writing, it pays attention to the intuitive display of data charts, and the style of writing is concise and to the point. On the basis of grasping the industry's annual characteristics and trend prospects, it incorporates many professional viewpoints. In the report structure, it reviewed the summary analysis of the industry status and development issues in 2017, and focused on the 2018 trend outlook. The "Blue Book on the Development of China's Petroleum Circulation Industry" (2017-2018 edition) includes 8 chapters in comprehensive chapters and 10 chapters in special topics. The specific chapters are summarized as follows: (1) The industry environment and policy chapter mainly analyzes the characteristics and trends of domestic and foreign energy industry and oil and gas policies; (2) The oil refining and market supply chapter analyzes the domestic refining industry layout and the current status of the refined oil market supply Trends; (3) Refined oil prices and wholesale, analyze the domestic product oil price fluctuations and the status and trends of refined oil wholesale; (4) Refined oil pipelines and storage, analyze the current situation and construction trends of domestic refined oil pipeline storage; ( 5) Refined oil retail and gas station section, analyze the current status and trends of domestic refined oil retail and gas station layout; (6) Aviation fuel, marine fuel, independent refineries and international trade section, analyze domestic aviation kerosene, marine fuel oil, Current status and trends of independent refineries and international trade; (7) Customer and market demand section, which analyzes the characteristics of domestic refined oil customers and the current status and development trend of market demand; (8) New energy section, which analyzes domestic ethanol gasoline, electric vehicles, Development status and trends of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles; (9) Special topics, from ethanol gasoline development, LNG market development, domestic refined oil distribution, refined oil supply chain management, private gas station development, oil-electricity price linkage, refined oil and automobile industry Development, distributed energy, and independent refinery development are carried out, and separate chapters are organized around the above themes and systematic research. In terms of market analysis and summary, this book focuses on refined oil price management policies, refined oil consumption tax, approval of refined oil wholesale management rights, development of independent refineries and gas stations, customer characteristics in the refined oil market, and customer refined oil consumption habits. A lot of scientific analysis, put forward many unique insights: Looking forward to 2018, under the influence of the trend of further rising international oil prices, the world's refined oil supply and demand will remain loose; consumption continues to grow, and oil prices rise slightly; the refined oil export market will become more competitive; the clean energy structure will accelerate the impact of the oil circulation industry . From the domestic environment: (1) The formation of the main body of the refined oil market and the diversification of competition will accelerate. With the continuous deepening of the market-oriented reform of the oil and gas industry, the layout of the refining industry has been optimized, the capacity of independent refineries has continued to expand, kerosene output has risen, and diesel output has declined slightly; some regions have formed a provincial-level giant petrochemical company through asset restructuring. It is expected that in 2018, China New vitality will appear in the refined oil market, the construction of sales terminals will continue to be strengthened, and competition and cooperation in the refined oil retail sector will be strengthened. (2) The price of refined oil is stable and the consumption tax is strictly supervised, which is conducive to maintaining the order of refined oil trading. The State Administration of Taxation has issued new management measures for the consumption tax on refined oil products, strictly controlling the taxation and taxation of enterprises, and monitoring the entire process of refined oil production, wholesale, and retail links, reducing refined oil "variation" and "blended oil". Phenomenon such as “issuance of chemical products” is conducive to regulating fair competition in the refined oil market; refined oil price control is expected to continue to be liberalized, and it is expected to be more closely related to international oil prices. The market as a whole remains stable. The wholesale and retail prices continue to narrow, making retail profitability difficult. Will increase. (3) With the advancement of digital operations, refined oil consumption will maintain steady growth. It is expected that in 2018, with the deepening of the oil and gas system reform and the background of high-quality economic growth, China’s total refined oil consumption will also increase; with the separation of pipeline networks, the construction of refined oil pipelines and the steady advancement of digital operations; commercial reserves and Expansion of the scale of storage construction; aviation kerosene consumption and market growth rate will continue to grow at a relatively high level; diesel consumption is expected to be the same as the previous year or have a small increase; while gasoline consumption is relatively stable, the market growth rate will be basically the same as the previous year ; Refined oil exports are expected to grow slightly, but the growth rate slows down; the development of smart gas stations and Internet + technology retail applications accelerate; the proportion of ethanol gasoline and non-oil businesses continues to expand. (4) Environmental control puts forward higher requirements on the refined oil industry chain. The state attaches great importance to environmental protection and pollution control. The government has carried out actions to control dishonest enterprises and punish various irregular operations. Small-scale refining and chemical enterprises with high pollution and high energy consumption are facing greater environmental protection and suspension pressure; traditional state-owned main refineries The factory is also facing greater pressure from the local government's stringent environmental requirements. The trend of upgrading refined oil quality standards will continue, and it is expected that more regions will implement the "National VI" fuel oil quality standards ahead of schedule. (5) The purchase restriction and travel restriction measures of gasoline and diesel passenger vehicles in big cities and the substitution trend of electric energy, hydrogen energy, LNG and other new energy vehicles to the consumption of refined oil will be more obvious. In 2018, this trend will not have a significant impact on refined oil consumption; but in the long run, the replacement trend of new energy for refined oil is irreversible. In addition, the report pointed out that in 2017, with China's macroeconomic stability and improvement, refined oil consumption ended the negative growth of the previous year, and consumption growth rebounded. Supply and demand continue to be loose, and market competition intensifies. In particular, the expansion of gas station outlets of independent oil refineries and international oil companies has accelerated significantly. Price competition in the retail area of refined oil has begun to emerge; the growth rate of China’s net exports of refined oil has fallen, and retail prices have been phased and regional. Frequent fluctuations and obvious market-oriented competition trends. |
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